This super-delegate calculator makes it plain why Hillary cannot win. Essentially, she would need two thirds of the unpledged superdelegates and double digit wins for the remainder of the primaries to pull it off. I don’t think she’ll quit, though, perhaps through some small hope that a Sirhan Sirhan figure will perepetrate a deus ex machina and sort out this Obama impediment once and for all.
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Apparently, under the Dems’ party rules, the pledged delegates are pledged only on the first round of voting–and many of them aren’t technically tied to their pledge. All she has to do is survive the first round of votes, and then it’s a game-on free-for-all.
In fact I don’t think they are truly pledged in the way you describe on the first round, although I doubt they would have the “audacity” to vote otherwise:
“ Pledged delegates reflect the preferences of voters but are not actually legally bound to vote for the candidate they represent. However, since candidates may remove delegates who they feel may be disloyal, the delegates generally vote as pledged.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_(United_States)_presidential_primaries,_2008#Pledged_delegates
Perhaps she is waiting for Obama to get killed. Keep waiting, Hillary. But I will not vote for her if this is snatched from Obama.
Hey if you give her flordia and michigan on the board then she would be he top person i don’t think it is fair that Hilary is not Getting thoughs states. I think if she worked hard in them she should get ALL the delegates because that is fair!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Both Obama and Clinton say that they are running for “the people”. He keeps saying “This is not about me, this is about you”. If this is not just BS then they will put their differences aside and run together against McCain. Obviously that is what the American people want, just look at the polls. We want them both. Him for his fresh new change, and her for her experience and knowledge. If they refuse to obey America’s wishes then we will all know that this is just another political battle of egos. If they do team up, it will heal the DNC and McCain won’t stand a chance!!! If they had teamed up when we first asked them to look how much money they could have saved. For the money being spent on this campaign, over $100,000,000. That could have bought each of us some gas, or paid for 10,000 peoples healthcare for a year, or formally educated over 3000 students at an ivy league school, fed 10,000,000 people, or housed over 2000 homeless people. And you both say that this is all about “us”? Shame on you both and shame on us for getting sucked into this.
Hillary needs to drop out of the race. What is more important, 184 superdelegates need to step up to the plate to end this drama.
Let Obama and Mccain finally face-off on the issues!
While some have argued that a Hillary Clinton victory may separate the black vote from the Democratic party, isn’t far more likely that an Obama victory permanently sends the far larger voting block that is the Hispanic vote permanently to the Republican Party. Interestingly, not because of the silly efforts made by Republicans (pandering including McCain’s open borders type views), but because of the Democrats revealing their true stripes. They are far more tied to the “causes” of black america than Hispanics. It seems quite possible that Hispanics will realize that they have wrongly attached themselves to the Democratic party. Decoupling the Hispanic vote from the Democratic party could be a huge win.
Come On, Give Hillary a break. Let us be realistic.
Hillary won all the big and flip flop states.
If it wasnt for the media and the Florida and Michigan controversy Hillary would have won the nomination long ago. The same media that is soft on him now is going to say how he is not a strong candidate when he faces McCain in November.
He is a softie, one debate killed him in PA. He had been dodging debates since. He is scared that more people will realize that he is not that strong if he debates. Wait till he debates McCain. Republicans are going to squash him like they did Kerry.
And I bet in the end Florida and Michigan is going to say we do not want to support the candidate who didnt care about our votes, already flip flop states will now vote for McCain.
All this non profit organization are going to come up with all the pictures of Obama smoking pot…and how his real name is Barrack Hussain Obama and how Hamas a terrorist org announced their support for him..this is just the tip of the ice berg…
When the November election turn dirty Obamas support is going to grow thin.
If Democratic super delegates are oblivious to these facts, good luck to them.
Strap her to the gurney, poke her with the pin.
Time’s UP!
MSNBC political analyst Chuck Todd last night noted something crucial: Even in the unlikely event Democrat insiders certify for Hillary the Michigan and Florida “victories”, she would still be short 100+ assigned delegates. Added to that would be a shortfall of more than 150,000 popular votes; fundamentally, they don’t count for much in the primary race, but are a prime indicator to the superdelegates of momentum, an overused term but key component in this election year.
Even if she won all of them, the remaining primaries don’t entail enough delegates to overtake that count. Her only hope would be to convince the superdelegates that they should give her their votes on the basis that Obama is unelectable. But the primary results prover her wrong: overall, her primary campaign was unsuccessful. Period. Obama’s WASN’T.
Nope. It’s over.
But it may take a spritz of Easy-Off and a spatula to scrape her out of this race. All indications are that she’ll stay in at least until the last Montana voter stumbles slack-jawed out of a booth June 3. Hillary has the never-say-die / screw-everybody-else grit that took the family to many, many victory parties – and quite a few out-’cross-the-county-line BJs.
But you never know. Pat Buchanan last night called her Indiana victory speech a “valedictory.” And he noted something unmistakable to anyone watching: Standing behind her on the podium, going through sober motions with no discernible enthusiasm or spirit, Bill knew the end had come, too.
She could call it quits any day now.
And as far as Obama being “unelectable”? He’ll be facing a candidate who’s in his ’70s and thoroughly bereft of anything like “hope and change”. McCain’s major misfortune is that the Mideast War Project sticks to him like bad putty on an old Chevelle. Add to that he’s crackhead dumb when it comes to the economy, and his half-hearted fixes feed snack food to a bulimic – and he walks and quacks like a loser.\
Unless there is a mastodon skeleton in his closet, or some terror disaster is engineered between now and early November, this election – primary and general – belongs to Obama.
My comment was strictly procedural and not to be interpreted as indicating that Hillary would win the nomination. In fact, given last night’s results, I think her campaign is over. She’ll stay in for the WVA and Kentucky primaries and then graciously bow out for the good of the party.
OK, yeah, she won the big states. But Obama outsmarted her procedurally in all the caucus states and he won the process. I do not rate his chances highly in the general, but McCain is a weak candidate and the economy won’t help him.
After the nominations, it will be a whole new ballgame.