Obama excited the Democratic base for several reasons. He is young, obviously smart, thoughtful, a good speaker, and charismatic. He is black, which excited blacks who are unusually tribal in matters political, but he also excited younger whites indoctrinated in multiculturalism since their infancy and unimpressed with the GOP’s conventional choices. FInally, and most importantly, he was forthright on the war, an issue that seperated him dramatically from the cynical Hillary Clinton. Even anti-war conservatives have given him serious consideration on account of this stand. Now he’s damaged his credibility on this issue after weeks of damaging his credibility in general by making a move to the center.
Daniel Larison remarks:
[I]t seems to me that the charge that Obama committed a first-class political blunder going into a long weekend is basically right. Having already given substance to the idea that he will abandon important pledges made during the primaries with his flips on the FISA legislation and public financing, and having apparently reversed himself on at least a couple other questions in the space of a few weeks, it was an unusually poor time to be “inartful,” as they like to call it, about one of the central policy questions of the day. Even if Obama’s remarks were completely consistent with past statements, which I think is not the case, he had nonetheless set himself up over the last few weeks to be attacked for yet another shift on a major policy. If the McCain campaign has a problem coming up with a coherent message, Obama’s campaign has its own problems with message discipline. Having just shaken the confidence of many of his supporters over the FISA bill and having opened himself up to being portrayed as opportunistic on something as fundamental as constitutional protections, this was hardly the time to start talking about “refining” anything. The Obama campaign wants the candidate to display thoughtfulness, but they don’t seem to think very much about how the candidate’s phrases will be interpreted by supporters and critics alike.
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Obama’s Right turn arises from the queue of dead bodies he’s seen on the highway of manifest destiny. They litter that perilous road like so many broken bottles and broken dreams-they are the decayed corpses of our liberal presidential aspirants.
McGovern, Mondale, Dukakis, Kerry-it’s not a pretty sight. The Four Horseman of the Apocalypse. Or call their collective visage the anti-Mount Rushmore, if you like. And don’t look now, but even JFK would rest amidst that species of losers had Mayor Daley not rescued his quixotic soul.
Obama knows this, and all that. Don’t deny the man his calculating, measured crusade. He wants no part of liberalism’s historical deja vue, no Groundhog Day redux. He ain’t getting vanquished in the west and not in the south, nor in the enclaves of middle-road uncertainty. Not if he can help it.
So he shapeshifts, accordingly. He’s doing what Bubba and HRC did with seamless alacrity and unabashed dexterity; he’s centerizing himself-or, said better, he’s Right-sizing himself.
To wit: Dump the iconoclastic preacher as the moment demands; salute the Likuds; wear a gun, kill a pervert; rationalize FISA; marginalize CFReform; and now his coup de grace.
Iraq-yes, that Iraq-now becomes a US entity in abstract perpetuity. Only he can turn a no into a yes and make it doubletalk free.
By the time the election rolls around, he’ll look and sound like Everyman. And therein we see the quintessential face of liberalism in all its warped design.
The guy believes in nothing, best I can tell, except perhaps black power, which he has endured some political cost for believing in here and there. But foreign policy? Please. He’d much rather talk about how to help the ghetto by fleecing “rich white people.” It’s the only thing he’s consistently cared about. Other than Obama. He sure believes in himself, that’s for sure.
I’m convinced that 90 percent of Obama’s fans don’t give a rat’s bum about his policy positions, except in the most general way. For that matter, can one voter out of 50 explain the meaning of the FISA legislation? This is a post-issues campaign. Obama is important not as a man or even as a politician, but as a symbol. His acolytes are blinded by his aura.
That will carry him into the White House (will his first act be to rename it?), but very soon after that, it will dissipate. The Republicans and other opponents will have no choice but to treat him like any other power figure. That could have surprising benefits for our national health.
For the first time, a black (or black-identified) politician will not be able to deflect criticism by playing the race card. The “I’m a victim/America is a racist country” ploy will sound silly coming from a man in the highest office in the land. It will be legitimate to hold blacks to the same standards as anyone else.
In the meantime, unless he makes a catastrophic blunder or an utterly devastating fact from his past is dug up by Republican truffle hounds, these supposed gaffes or flip-flops of Obama’s are simply irrelevant.
“But foreign policy? Please. ”
I’m not big on prognostications, but I’ll make one, anyway. Look for James Baker to become Obama’s Sec/State.
All the signs are there. Obama is first for rapprochement, but with a touch of right-wing thunder. He’s next for back-slapping and hugs and kisses and diplomatic relations. More carrots than sticks, is he. Third, he’s an idealist (Ok. Obviously.) Fourth, he says he wants a new breed of (domestic) politics-those that cut across the aisle. Thus…
Baker’s the perfect guy. A Bush1 GOPer who’s detached from the neocons, detached from Iraq yet a respected doyen to the anti-AEI DC think tankers. And that’s now about everybody. He’s from the pragmatic-idealist school of foreign policy and basically drafted the ISG report, which is the on-again, off-again blueprint for (mideast) inclusion and multilateralism. It’s on again, oh joy.
He approaches everything from a negotiator’s mindset, as does Barack, as does Barack’s world. He also wants foreign policy firmly back into the hands of State Dept experts rather than with the DoD goose-steppers.
A match made in heaven.
However, don’t look for much hope w/r/t Iran or Syria. They won’t play softball, except on a perfunctory level, as is evidenced by Iran’s rejection of the sweetheart Euro deal for no-nukes. Quid pro baloney. “Insurgents” like PJAK will likely wither, and the Tehran mullahcracy, equipped with enriched uranium, will perpetuate their global jihad. Well, unless the Likuds wake up.
But the troops will be home, in large part, because Obama will have gotten assurances. Or, if not, some Faustian bargain.
“He approaches everything from a negotiator’s mindset, as does Barack, as does Barack’s world. He also wants foreign policy firmly back into the hands of State Dept experts rather than with the DoD goose-steppers.”
Our enemies must be overjoyed at the thought of this man being President.