Comments on: No News is Good News

By: David Manley

David Manley — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 19:30:48 +0000

I think in the long run if Iraq is seen as a success, it won’t be because we removed Saddam Hussein, and it won’t be because we brought democracy to the region.

It will be because the moral and physical damage we suffered in Iraq is much lower than the moral and physical damage radical Islam suffered. Huge numbers of terrorists from around the Muslim world were killed, and the al Qaeda brand was tremendously hurt within the Arab world.

So before we write Iraq off as a strategic failure for the U.S., I think from a distance of a few years, we may see it as a strategic success, simply because of the relative damage suffered by the opposing sides.

By: Roach

Roach — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 16:33:58 +0000

It’s possible. I think there is a lot of weariness from many Iraqis of the 2005-06 Sunni-Shia fighting. So long as the different factions are kept reasonably at bay and the oil wealth is shared a bit with Sunnis, something stable is possible. It wouldn’t be the only country on earth where tribes that once hated each other reach some new, more peaceful modus vivendi.

I do think this shows that McCain is a bit of an idiot, though. He mocked Joe Biden’s suggestion of federalization or partition, which, at the time, was a pretty reasonable solution and one that I endorsed.

By: David Manley

David Manley — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 02:57:54 +0000

I think the key to preventing renewed civil war in Iraq is to try to keep power as devolved as possible to the provinces and to keep enough of a U.S. presence in country to prevent a large conventional fight between the factions.

I think that after all the bloodletting both sides are actually very happy for the current peace, and it shouldn’t be that hard to keep it alive as long as the central government doesn’t over reach.

You’re right though that Iraq is an inherently unstable position, and at some point they are likely to be at each other’s throats again unless the current decentralization is institutionalized. It technically is not under the current Iraqi constitution.