What are Russia’s Subs doing off America’s East Coast?
I have an hypothesis. It involves events of one year ago: Russia’s Counterattack Against Georgia and Liberation (or Annexation depending on your point of view) of South Ossetia.
As Russia’s Akula Class Subs cruise our East Coast, Georgia is complaining this week about Ossetia again, and there have been some very minor clashes between Russian and Georgian forces in recent weeks. It’s aparently very tense over there.
I wonder if this is Russia’s way of saying: if your ally decides to attack again and things get hot in Ossetia, don’t think it will costless for the United States to lend a hand. The weak Russia of Boris Yeltsin is a fading memory. While the U.S. may be able to send some naval vessels or logistical aid through the Bosporous into the Black Sea, let’s just say if you go into our “lake,” we’ll be keeping an eye on your comings and goings and can respond in kind to any military aid to the Georgians. In other words, two can play at the power projection game.
I hope nothing happens either over here or in Ossetia, but the one year anniversary of the war–8/8/08–is coming up, and Saakashvili is completely unpredictable in general and doubly desparate because he is about to lose power domestically. He’s just stupid enough to attack again in the hopes the West will view a Russian counterattack as “aggression.”
I hope he realizes his similarly choleric mentor, John McCain, did not win the election, and Obama’s only likely support for Georgia will be some bandaids, and a speech asking “cooler heads to prevail.” If Saakashvili is not killed by the Russians or his own people, Obama may even have them all over for a beer summit.
Incidentally, this show of military capability by Russia is all happening shortly after Obama’s charm offensive to Moscow. During the campaign, part of Obama’s schtick was that everyone was going to love us now and never cause problems because Obama will be so smooth compared to Bush. And while there may be a modicum of truth to this, it is worrisome that the very parties we are courting are responding in this fashion. Then again, between having a NATO exercise in Georgia earlier this year, various protocol flubs in Moscow, and Biden’s insults of Russia after Obama’s recent trip, it could simply be that actions and other administration officials’ unscripted words speak louder than Obama’s empty rhetoric overseas, just as they speak more loudly at home.
Subscribe To This Feed
I don’t think Russia would do anything more than symbolic in the scenario you allude to. Our ability to influence the current situation in Georgia with token aid or words of support is so limited that any aggression by Russia against the U.S. would be pointless and counterproductive. If Saakashvili attacks he will simply be giving Russia the excuse it needs to occupy the entire country, and there is little we would do about it.
Which is why Saakashvili will not attack Russia. Even if he was stupid enough to try, he would probably just face an instant coup, as the government, military, and people would immediately reject this suicidal course of action.
Obama’s unclenched fist is already bearing fruit.
Too bad the fruit is infested with maggots. And is made out of dog-crap.
That picture is pretty eye-catching. It looks like something out of “Red Dawn”, or some 1950′s political thriller. Of course, all that stuff about the Communists secretly boring from within to eventually take over the U.S. from the top down was all paranoid Bircher propaganda, right? RIGHT?!?
This picture, appearing above the first sentence “What are Russia’s Subs doing off America’s East Coast?”, appears to imply that this is a beach on the US east coast. Actually, it appears to be a beach on the Black Sea: see http://englishrussia.com/?p=466. I hope you’re not deliberately trying to mislead.
No, I’m not, I just thought it was pretty evocative. It’s a sub off a coast. No one has said they’ve gone within our 12 mile limits.
OK, but even if not deliberate it’s still misleading. I was about to fire off an email to my brothers saying wow, look at this, when I thought, hm, if that were the US I’d probably have heard about it, so I googled around first.
Look at the bathing suits, dude.
I shhould have known. Not enought fat people for a U.S. beach. Still, I have to admit, that’s a pretty cool looking submarine.
Tschafer
I wonder if they had an open invitation from the Obama White House!