There is no prima facie evidence against Martin in the video. That said, I was struck by Martin’s swagger as he walked out, like a sailor on land after weeks on a rolling deck. The punks in my high school walked like that, a long time ago.

Christians always get blamed for the Crusades. But Muslims never get blamed for being the ones who made the Crusades necessary.

Likewise with ‘gay marriage’ republicans get blamed for diverting voters’ attention from important economic issues to silly social ones by demanding marriage be defined according to its historical practice in the Western world. Yet democrats never get blamed for essentially creating this concept, ‘gay marriage, out of thin air and dumping it into the political arena where it has resulted in countless wasted hours and dollars on ballot initiatives and court costs.

So it seems that the best thing to do in life is take the first shot and let your opponent take all the blame with his inevitable response.

1. Blacks are pretty irrelevant to the issue; they will vote for Obama regardless, and any diminished enthusiasm will be very minor.

2. You’re right that it will increase enthusiasm among Evangelicals and traditional Catholics for Romney. But I think they are fairly turned off by Obama already, so it’s hard to say how significant an effect it will have.

3. Most other voters who are opposed to gay marriage will probably still vote mostly based on how they feel the economy is doing. They might vote against gay marriage in a ballot initiative, but in most cases they probably don’t feel strongly enough about the issue to let it determine their presidential vote. After all, the reasons against gay marriage from a secular perspective are hardly ever articulated and are fairly difficult for the average person to grasp. If Romney can actually do a good job of stating the case against gay marriage while sounding like he still thinks gays are just swell on a personal basis, he could perhaps use the issue to tip a few undecided voters his way.

4. The endorsement of gay marriage is a great fundraiser for Obama. It gives core supporters something to get really excited about.

5. The endorsement of gay marriage distracts his broad base away from economic issues and towards the cause celebre of our time. This is especially important for younger voters. These people weren’t going to vote for Romney in any case, but they will be more likely to actually turnout.